With the approach of the end of 2016, it seems appropriate to revisit an earlier graph in this thread and update it. This graph plots on the same axes the number of standard region equivalents (Kitely land area; blue line) and the scaled (×10) six-monthly rolling average of active users (red line).
What was happening when the graphs change direction? Looking at
historical Kitely blog posts might provide some clues -- but remember that the rolling average of active user numbers will be influenced by changes up to six months before, plus some seasonal variation.
Please note again: This is my personal take on possible coincidences -- I'm not suggesting causation!
A March 2012: More ways to create a Kitely account, without using Facebook
B August 2012: Introduction of megaregions
C October 2012: Introduction of fixed-price worlds
D January 2013: Start of Kitely Market promotion to prospective merchants
E May 2013: Merchants start listing on Kitely Market
F December 2013: Pre-announcement of plan changes plus limited-time grandfathering option for Silver and Gold plans
G January 2014: Details of simplified plans (Regular and Premium) and new fixed-price options
H June 2014: Changes in how metered worlds work -- only Premium Account holders can create them now
I May 2015: Pre-announcement of simplified plans plus limited-time grandfathering option for Premium and Gold plans (Gold re-introduced for one month only). (These ideas were discussed in the weekly Kitely Community Meetings during April, which might explain the earlier uptick in region numbers.)
J June 2015: Fixed-price worlds only from now on (simpler for everyone to understand), and at a lot lower cost for Standard (2x2) and Advanced (up to 4x4) worlds
K December 2015: Upgrade to OpenSim 0.8.2, including varregions
L February 2016: Kitely Evergreen Island template introduced for new Kitely worlds
M July 2016: Events system added to Kitely log-in screen introduced in May 2016
And here's an updated version of the graph showing how the number of active users varies over months and years. The top purple line is for 2016.