Iran attack on Israel

[Mike Lorrey]

For those not keeping up with the news, Iran has been bombarding Israel FROM IRAN with hundreds of drones and intermediate range ballistic missiles, apparently trying to overwhelm IDF air defenses. Many seem to be targeting IDF nuclear research centers in the Negev Desert. US and UK jets over Iraq have been intercepting drones, and IDF Patriot and Arrow batteries have been responding to the many IRBMs. Hezbollah also started launching Khassam missiles from Lebanon, which IDF has bombed the launch sites of inside Lebanon.
Jordan has announced that Israel is welcome to use their air space to intercept drones and missiles. A US Stratotanker over Iraq declared an in flight emergency and sought to exit Iraqi airspace. Jordanian air force has also been cooperating in intercepting drones.
Israel has launched its "doomsday plane", the equivalent of the US Looking Glass command center plane that is intended to maintain control of a nations strategic defense even if ground based command centers are destroyed. I am very concerned that the hundreds of missiles being launched toward Israel at once are intended to exhaust the supply of Patriot and Arrow ABM missiles, to clear the way for Iran to strike with their first "nuclear breakout" warhead. I have no evidence to support this suspicion other than the sheer numbers of missiles launched at once and the fact that the IDF has launched its doomsday plane.
I am not at this time aware of any of these attacks hitting the area of Tel Aviv where Ilan and Oren live, but I am sure everyones prayers are with him and Oren and their families to stay safe. This is a very dangerous time in world history. As dangerous as this situation is for our friends in Israel, the risks go far beyond the region and could spill over into a global nuclear exchange. I suggest everyone meditate and pray to whatever you hold dear that we all survive this.

[Chris Namaste]

Thank you Mike for your concern. Iran's actions are a very dangerous escalation. So far Israel and its allies have intercepted more than 200 missiles and drones that have been shot towards Israel with only very minor infrastructure damage to a military base in the Negev desert. But, we're getting warnings that additional volleys are being fired so this is far from over. I don't see how Israel can avoid launching a significant retaliation to this attack so I expect this will deteriorate. If Iran uses a nuke on Israel it will be obliterated by Israel's much larger nuclear arsenal, some of which is submarine based to ensure that it has reliable second-strike capabilities. I don't think the Iranians want to commit suicide, but I could be wrong.

[Tony El]

Update: Iran launched the following at Israel last night:

• 185 drones, all of which were intercepted by Israeli and allies air defenses.
• 110 ballistic missiles, almost all of which were intercepted and only one of which partially hit its target causing minor structural damage to an IDF base.
• 36 cruise missiles, all of which were intercepted by Israeli and allies air defenses.

Now we'll need to see how Israel decides to react and what that leads to. News outlets are saying that there is big diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration on Israel to contain this but I highly doubt that will happen. The war between Israel and Iran has been conducted by Iranian proxies for decades, it's the first time Iran has attacked Israel directly from its own territory. Wars are very easy to start and very hard to end and we're likely going to see a lot of pain and suffering before this comes to some resolution.

[Mike Lorrey]

Thank you Mike for your concern. Iran's actions are a very dangerous escalation. So far Israel and its allies have intercepted more than 200 missiles and drones that have been shot towards Israel with only very minor infrastructure damage to a military base in the Negev desert. But, we're getting warnings that additional volleys are being fired so this is far from over. I don't see how Israel can avoid launching a significant retaliation to this attack so I expect this will deteriorate. If Iran uses a nuke on Israel it will be obliterated by Israel's much larger nuclear arsenal, some of which is submarine based to ensure that it has reliable second-strike capabilities. I don't think the Iranians want to commit suicide, but I could be wrong.

The thing that has concerned me is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has this prevalent ferverent belief that they need to bring on the hellfire of the end times because that is when their "Mahdi" will return. Ahmadinejad was just the one most public about his support of this belief. I cannot imagine why they would launch this war unless that level of fanatacism was ruling their decision making. They cannot possibly imagine they will go unscathed by any Israeli and or US/allied response.

[Christine Nyn]

Hi Mike,

The concept of honor is very real in middle eastern cultures. Israel assassinated a key Iranian military figure when it attacked the building in Damascus earlier this month. The fact that this person was responsible for arming Hezbollah with the Iranian weapons it has been using to attack Israel for years is irrelevant in their eyes. They view this targeted assassination as a national insult so, from their perspective, they had to retaliate against Israel. The problem is that if Israel doesn't respond militarily in force it will be sending a message that invites more attacks from Iranian allies in the middle east. It's hard to deescalate from such dynamics so if Israel doesn't counter attack it's just because the US convinced it that doing so would cause it more harm than reducing it's deterrence against future attacks. I could conjecture what that convincing would need to look like with Israel's current hardliner government, but my guess is as good as yours.

[Constance Peregrine]

I'm just finishing up reading of the latest going on there.

Just try and stay safe Ilan and Oren, and family.

[Christine Nyn]

Just try and stay safe Ilan and Oren, and family.

Indeed. You mentioned the precautions you already take Ilan in a previous post. I very much hope they won't be tested.

[Mike Lorrey]

Israel has declared war on Iran, apparently.

[Trouble Ahead]

I wished things in the Middle East could be like in Europe... no borders .. no visa.. no checkpoints

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pmp2fnh7wNU

( a little light hearted contribution to bring a smile)

cheers